Why we should stop listening to economists

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In mid-2000, a small group of elite graduate students at some of France's most prestigious universities declared war on the economic establishment. This was to be the beginning of the end of the modern economist.

Concluding that economics had become an “autistic science,” lost in “imaginary worlds” and too much of what they studied bore no relation to what was happening outside the classroom walls. They demanded greater realism in economics teaching, less reliance on mathematics “as an end in itself” and more space for approaches beyond the dominant neoclassical model, including input from other disciplines, such as psychology, history and sociology. They called their movement Autisme-economie.

You see, modern economists had become so detached from what had begun as an attempt by 18th Century thinkers to come to grips with the profound social and economic changes that were taking place all around them, that the two larger intellectual traditions that had formed the foundations of the study of economics have largely been abandoned: political economy, which is based on the simple idea that economic outcomes are often determined largely by political factors (as well as vice versa) and moral philosophy, which is exactly what it sounds like.

By the end of the 19th century, the new field of economics no longer concerned itself with moral philosophy, and less and less with political economy. Political economy was less vital because government intervention disrupted the path to equilibrium and must therefore be avoided. And as for morality, economics would concern itself solely with the behaviour of rational, self-interested, utility-maximizing Homo economicus. (What he did outside the confines of the marketplace would be someone else's field of study!) The study was coming to be dominated by a conviction that markets produce the most efficient allocation of scarce resources, that individuals always seek to maximize their utility in an economically rational way, and that all of this would ultimately lead to an overall equilibrium of prices, wages, supply, and demand.

And so by the beginning of the 20th century, economists were looking for theorems and models that could help to explain the universe. Although they were dealing with the behaviour of humans, not atoms and particles, they came to believe they could accurately predict the trajectory of human decision-making in the marketplace. From Adam Smith's innovations through John Maynard Keynes's work in the 1930s, economics was argued in words. Now, it would it would be argued in numbers.

Yet, by speaking now in numbers, in averages or what-have-you, modern economics tend to ignore our “animal spirits” – playing down human irrationality, inefficiency, venality and ignorance because those are qualities that are extremely hard to plug into any mathematical equation that purports to model human behaviour. This tendency to define the discipline by its tools instead of its subject matter has led conventional economic theory to ignore the very real and present fact that Homo economicus is a lot more anxious, irrational, unpredictable and complex than most economists can actually hope to understand. And as Smith recognized, he has a moral and ethical dimension that cannot be ignored.

Today, ten years on from the first real glimmer of Post-autistic economics and amidst the wreckage of the unsinkable steamer Economics on the rocks of reality, the resistance continues within economics through the Post-Autistic Economic Network, a newsletter published by those economists who still continue to resist orthodoxy – now known as the Real-World Economic Review. In an editorial in January, 2010, the editors called for major economics organizations to censure those economists who “through their teachings, pronouncements and policy recommendations facilitated the global financial collapse” and pointed to the “continuing moral crisis within the economics profession.”

And that is why we should stop listening to economists, or at least those who have any thoroughly convinced answers.

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6 comments

  • Comment Link Matthew Lewis Friday, 21 October 2011 16:03 posted by Matthew Lewis

    Baxter, I believe here you are speaking mostly of macro economics. Here's a piece by Akerloff of Berkeley in which he assesses the state of macro and where it needs to go. I found this piece very heartening because it clearly discusses the holes in modern macro theory.

    http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.97.1.5

    He point to the '5 neutralities' which form the bedrock of the neo classical ideas that dominate the airwaves and that the political apparatus has taken as gospel. Here's a quote from the conclusion where his criticism of economics mirrors yours, that the 'animal spirits' are ignored.

    'The very construction of those neutralities denies the possibility that peoples’ decisions might be influenced by their views regarding how they, and how others, should behave. In practice,
    however, the neutralities are systematically violated.'

    I think economics is quite concerned with how to think about the complexity of human behavior. I agree that it is difficult or impossible to imagine describing the totality of human behavior in an equation. Doesn't mean we can't try though! And you never know, it might work out in the end.

    Lastly, I'm not sure that broadly dismissing the field of economics is constructive. An idea, such as the efficient market hypothesis, was an idea. It was developed by economists, and proved interesting, though I have it on good authority that most practicing economists would know better than to believe in that particular idea especially when it comes to financial markets. That this idea was subsequently used and abused by governments and corporations for their own benefit should not diminish economics as an avenue to seek truth. It just means that an idea was abused by people for their own benefit or goals.

  • Comment Link Trevor Malkinson Wednesday, 26 October 2011 00:36 posted by Trevor Malkinson

    Thanks for turning me on to this movement Andrew, this has been a concern of mine for awhile. Here's some passage from a recent article that supports this/your view here. It's from the Los Angeles Review of Books, and it's a review of two new books on the financial crisis. Here's a couple of key passages.

    "Both marginalism and what the authors call “marginalism’s bastard” (neoclassicism) think of capitalism as market, where the only thing that matters is price, and through this radical over-simplification of real economic activity, these theories could promise that capitalism would deliver uninterrupted growth if the state stayed out of the way. 'Modern Political Economics' traces in detail the convergence of forces that, by the 1980s, had secured monolithic authority for this school of thought (dubbed the “Econobubble”) and led to the deregulation and pricing theory that encouraged derivative trading to go thermonuclear. As the economic order of the Global Minotaur came to seem ever more like second nature, a strain of economic thought purporting to have established with scientific rigor that the economy was simply a market, a natural (read “self-regulating”) system, became more and more dominant. In this way too, a crisis of the kind that was just around the corner was, and still is, for all practical purposes unthinkable".

    "Varoufakis et al. are telling us the more plausible story about the failure of mainstream economics. There’s the “inherent error” discussed above, along with a profound tendency inside most capitalist institutions to reproduce the economic status quo after about a half-century of market fetishism...
    Mainstream economists failed to predict the crisis because — though smart, hardworking, and for the most part well-meaning — they are formed in a discipline where adherence to market theory, and only market theory, is rewarded, and the fact that it doesn’t tell the whole story is unimportant. The theory works well enough. Until it doesn’t".

    http://lareviewofbooks.org/post/11567586093/the-great-shock

    Two other resources on this subject. A book by "complexity economist" Eric Beinhocker that includes a long discussion of how neo-classical economics is based on outdated science, and the negative consequences of that.

    http://www.amazon.com/Origin-Wealth-Evolution-Complexity-Economics/dp/1422121038/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1319587318&sr=1-1

    And an issue of Adbusters devoted entirely to this topic. It has short pieces by loads of economists. Great resource for this debate:

    http://www.adbusters.org/magazine/85

    And Matt, I wouldn't say that Andrew is rejecting economics in general, although he does skirt that line (and if went across I'd also object). But he specifically rejects any economists "who have any thoroughly convinced answers". To me this is a rejection of the mindset in (neoclassical) economics that thinks it's a sound 'science', and that it can predict outcomes (particularly via math). This is precisely the lack of understanding of complexity theory and nonlinear dynamical systems that Beinhocker's book outlines. Here's a passage from the the philosopher Manuel De Landa that speaks to the issue of predictability nicely. De Landa is intimately familiar with the findings of the postmodern sciences:

    “Our world is governed not only by nonlinear dynamics, which makes detailed prediction and control impossible, but also by nonlinear combinatorics, which implies that the number of possible mixtures of meshwork and hierarchy, of command and market, of centralization and decentralization, are immense and that we simply cannot predict what the emergent properties of these combinations will be.”

    http://www.egs.edu/faculty/manuel-de-landa/biography/

    What this piece by Andrew suggests to me is that the field of economics is going to have to become far, far more interdisciplinary, and it seems it's already moving that way, which is great. In this way the discipline is moving toward an 'integral' approach of its own accord, becoming more comprehensive and synthetic in its methods.

    Thanks Andrew, look forward to looking more into post autistic economics!

  • Comment Link Matthew Lewis Thursday, 27 October 2011 03:44 posted by Matthew Lewis

    Trevor, I would be curious to hear what you have to think about the piece I linked to. Also, love the passion that you bring to your comment.

    Some of the most interesting lessons in economics I have studied have had to do with market failures. My experience of economics is that economists are quite aware of the imperfections of markets and are happy to explore when, where and how markets fails. I think that suggestions that lump all of economics into a camp that blindly believes in the power of the market does not accurately portray the field of study that is economics.

  • Comment Link Trevor Malkinson Monday, 07 November 2011 04:42 posted by Trevor Malkinson

    Matt, way overdue here, apologies. I've skimmed the paper you linked to, but it is a longie so I've haven't gotten to it in full, but I intend to.

    I appreciate you sharing your experience about diversity in economics departments, that's good to hear. Have you had a class where you study complexity economics, or where equilibrium has been challenged as a core organizing concept? How about the type of non-linear dynamics and unpredictability that DeLanda speaks about above?

    I wasn't necessarily suggesting that all economics professors "blindly believe in the power of the market", but that it seems like one form/school of economic thinking has become calcified as the dominant paradigm, and that in some cases (maybe to a very large degree) this economic thinking has become complicit with monied power. It serves an elite status quo.

    I'm sure you heard of the controversy that Charles Ferguson started with his documentary film 'Inside Job, with its condemnation of economic departments who supported the status quo that led to the financial crisis. Here's one article, but if you type "economics, Inside Job" into Google you'll get many.

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june11/insidejob_05-04.html

    I think the resources I've offered (and there's much more to add there) and the original movement Andrew speaks to in this posts demands a longer more detailed inquiry on your part that what you've allowed from your end so far (in this post and elsewhere).

    cheers Matt, love havin an economics corner opening up around the site.

  • Comment Link Matthew Lewis Monday, 07 November 2011 16:47 posted by Matthew Lewis

    Trevor, here is an excellent pod cast on the state of economics, very much in tune with what is being discussed here. I think you would appreciate it.

    http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2011/09/rosenberg_on_th.html

    I think we are in agreement about how the field of economics has been used for unsavory ends. I also am aware of and agree that new ideas being developed in complexity economics, and around unpredictability and non linear dynamics need to be examined and possibly integrated into economics. I have personally zero experience of being taught these concepts in a meaningful way, though unpredictability is a broad concept that certainly matters in the micro economic field of decision making under uncertainty. So what am I trying to say?

    I think I am trying to stick up for, and distinguish the academic side of economics from how it is applied in finance and politics, ie the mainstream. Clearly the mainstream view is almost strictly neo classical. But in the field of economic study and research, my experience is that this is not the case.

    I do submit that neo classical economics is widely taught at the undergraduate level, though in and of itself I do not feel this is incorrect. I remember being taught concepts in chemistry that turned out to be flat out wrong. These concepts were taught because they conveyed an idea that carried some meaning, even if the science of chemistry had moved past and discarded the concept. Economics might be similar in that way, but it is a more dangerous practice because of how these concepts are applied in the real world.

    As for the idea from Inside Job, this is a case of moral hazard which is discussed in undergraduate economics. Here, what is supposed to be independent research is being influenced by the grant and funding process. This is an obvious problem that should be addressed if the mainstream influence of economics is to be more honest and constructive than it currently is.

    Cheers,
    Matt

  • Comment Link Trevor Malkinson Friday, 11 November 2011 00:37 posted by Trevor Malkinson

    thanks Matt, I'll check back in once I've listened to the podcast!

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