The Odds Against Any of Us Existing At All

Written by 

the moonAs Lindsay describes in her Saturday Night Jukebox entry, the Moon, formed by a chance collision between a Mars sized object and the Earth (what are the odds of that? - in the vastness of space!), exerts a gravitational pull that keeps the Earth spinning at the right angle and stability for complex life to have arisen.

A few other unlikely factors had to be in place for the emergence of life, and of human beings.

 

-We're within the small range of distance from the Sun for habitability. Five percent closer or fifteen percent further out and forget it.

 

-The Sun is big enough to radiate energy, but isn't one of the more common kinds of much larger star, which burns itself out comparatively quickly.

 

-The Earth's molten core created "outgassing" which helped form the atmosphere, which is kind of important to those of us who breathe, and provides the magnetic field that protects us from cosmic radiation.

 

-The planet's molten core is the reason we have plate tectonics, and therefore, mountains, hills and land above the surface of the ocean. If not for that, every inch of the planet would be submerged at a depth of four kilometres.

 

the earth, from space-We have the right chemical elements in the right amounts and proportions.

 

-The dinosaurs were wiped out by a meteor after roughly 100 million years as top species. If not for that extremely unlikely event, mammals probably wouldn't have evolved past forms that were too small to qualify as T-Rex chow.

 

As if that confluence of improbable circumstances isn't fortuitous enough, consider the odds of you yourself being here. As Bill Bryson puts it in A Short History of Nearly Everything - his endlessly entertaining and informative overview of the natural sciences from which the facts in this article are drawn:

 

Not only have you been lucky enough to be attached since time immemorial to a favoured evolutionary line, but you have also been extremely - make that miraculously - fortunate in your personal ancestry. Consider the fact that for 3.8 billion years, a period of time older than the Earth's mountains and rivers and oceans, every one of your forebears on both sides has been attractive enough to find a mate, healthy enough to reproduce, and sufficiently blessed by fate and circumstances to live long enough to do so. Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from its life's quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that would result - eventually, astoundingly, and all too briefly - in you.

 

Stack up all of the odds against your existence, and that number would be really big. Tantamount to making a trick pool shot, blindfolded, across a table the size and shape of Saskatchewan. Or of someone on public transit talking loudly on their cell phone and saying something interesting. 

Related items

Join the Discussion

Commenting Policy

Beams and Struts employs commenting guidelines that we expect all readers to bear in mind when commenting at the site. Please take a moment to read them before posting - Beams and Struts Commenting Policy

7 comments

  • Comment Link Miles Monday, 28 May 2012 19:36 posted by Miles

    I really like this - for a cosmological humanistic interpretation check out Brian Swimme http://www.journeyoftheuniverse.org/

  • Comment Link TJ Dawe Tuesday, 29 May 2012 20:56 posted by TJ Dawe

    Miles - thanks for this. Br. Juma, here at Beams, has recommended Brian Swimme to me before. I certainly look forward to checking out his stuff, but in the meantime, what can you tell me about him?

  • Comment Link Dwayne Smoot Wednesday, 30 May 2012 18:00 posted by Dwayne Smoot

    Long odds, yes, certainly we can say that about early life. But this also evokes the notion that we're talking enormous time periods here, on scales that most humans really can't conceive. There are nearly limitless combinations that DNA and life have tried over the aeons, most of which have led to current carbon-based lifeforms on Earth.

    As carbon-based life forms often we assume that all life everywhere should follow the same evolutionary course. The odds of that are even more remote than the odds in this piece! We may be too myopic to see that we're confronted by alternate life forms because we just can't conceive of how they form in the first place. We've seen mass extinctions caused by human activities in a terrestrial context; imagine the devastation a batch of strong earth-born microbes could wreak in an non-terrestrial environment which never developed defenses against that type of life.

    So, long odds, yes, but mitigated by the enormity of time and evolutionary pressure.

  • Comment Link TJ Dawe Thursday, 31 May 2012 02:18 posted by TJ Dawe

    Long odds indeed, the kind that lead many to believe in a divine plan. But as Richard Dawkins says in some book or other, we evolved on the savannah, perceiving small to medium distances and small to medium amounts of time.Geological - much less cosmic - time spans defy our common sense. We didn't evolve needing to understand such things.

    But the universe is unimaginably vast. And according to Francis Drake's famous equation, if you took all of the stars in the Milky Way and divided that number by the number of them likely to have planets, divided by the number likely to have the conditions in which life could arise, divided by the number in which life would have evolved to a state of intelligence, the number reduces by great swaths at each step, and yet still comes out estimating the number of stars with intelligent life on at least one planet in the Milky Way to be in the millions. Just in the Milky Way.

    And yes, those forms of life would likely be stranger to us and more different from us than jelly fish, or those micro-organisms that live in the exceeding high temperatures in the ocean where geothermal heat spews out.

  • Comment Link Victor Shiryaev Saturday, 02 June 2012 00:41 posted by Victor Shiryaev

    Great piece!

    On the other hand, as Stephen Jay Gould, a famous evolutionary biologist, and Nassim Taleb, a famous "Black Swan" theory economist, would both say, the very fact of being here kinda renders strange any assumption that we had one chance in a godzillion. Simply by being here we kinda assert that this was the only way evolution occured - or, for that matter, even - the only way it could occur, since it did occur this way out of a godzillion chances.

    It is not to say that all was a pure chance, or a pure destiny: It is to say that the whole meditation on chance vs destiny does not make much sense anyway, since both perspectives are absolutely equally meaningful and do not make any sense ;)

  • Comment Link TJ Dawe Monday, 04 June 2012 00:09 posted by TJ Dawe

    Hey Victor - if you get a chance - please expand on this. "Simply by being here we kinda assert that this was the only way evolution occured - or, for that matter, even - the only way it could occur, since it did occur this way out of a godzillion chances."

    Our being here does indeed assert that this is the one way evolution occurred, but I don't see how it's the only way it could have occurred. If not for that meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs, for instance, we wouldn't be here. The odds of that happening were tiny, but it did happen.

    But of all the planets in the galaxy (and in other galaxies) where life has emerged, there are certainly millions and millions in which the exact right kind of calamity did not occur, and a physical superior species family still dominates, keeping intelligent life still latent. Or a calamity too strong happened, and life was wiped out altogether.

    Either possibility could easily have happened here - and the odds were in favour of either option being the case. But with the galaxy being so vast, even slim chances do come up, like ours did. For which I'm grateful. And if that hadn't happened, I wouldn't be here, wishing it had.

  • Comment Link Dwayne Smoot Monday, 04 June 2012 16:53 posted by Dwayne Smoot

    Great topic! I'd been looking at similar such as http://io9.com/5914838/is-it-too-late-for-first-contact-with-aliens which brings in the limitations of our conception of physics and the physical universe. We're just too sensory blind to conceive of how an alien life might communicate, much more than being able to detect, especially if they use a different physics than we do.

Login to post comments

Search Beams

Most Popular Discussions